Forecast (0000 UTC 21 March)
Current Conditions:
The most recent ASCAT pass shows wind speeds from the ENE at roughly 15kts. Infrared satellite imagery shows some low-level clouds that have popped up over your region. Currents according to RTOFS are weak and disorganized. Significant wave heights are around 1.5m and wind waves are around 1m, with both traveling westward (though the significant wave height movement is more ambiguous).
Short Term Forecast:
As mentioned by forecaster Maroon, the big story in the near term is the deepening of a low-pressure center off the east coast. This will result in an increase in wind speed and a shift in wind direction to have more of a southerly component. ECMWF is saying cloud cover shouldn’t be a problem, but it’s not entirely capturing the clouds you’re experiencing now, so you might want to keep an eye on them. There doesn’t appear to be any substantial change in the wave height, however. RTOFS doesn’t have any persistent features with regards to currents, which seems to be par for the course.
Long term forecast:
This won’t make you happy… As the low-pressure center deepens further and progresses eastward, winds will continue to have a stronger southerly component. It does still seem that the worst of the front will pass to your north sometime late on Friday. Luckily, after midday on the 21st, the maximum wind speed you’ll see should be 15 kts and will really taper off on Friday, especially if you get far enough west (>55W) and don’t travel too far north. Winds will then be weak the rest of the weekend. The worst clouds should also remain to your north assuming you remain at relatively the same latitude. There shouldn’t be any significant changes in wave height (of either variety). In summary, after Friday, conditions will be much more favorable.
Next 12 hrs (3/21 00UTC-3/21 12UTC):
Wind: increasing from 15-18 kts from the ENE to 18-23 kts from the ESE
Waves: 1.5-2m significant wave height going to the S
Current: weak and ambiguous
Cloud Cover: 25-40%
12-24 hr forecast (3/21 12UTC – 3/22 00UTC):
Wind: decreasing to 12-15 kts by the end of the day from the SE
Waves: 1.5-2.5m significant wave height going to the W
Current: weak and ambiguous
Cloud Cover: <25%
24-48 hr forecast (3/22 00UTC – 3/23 00UTC):
Wind: 12-15 knots from the SE then steadily decreasing to 6-12 kts from the S.
Waves: 1.5-2.5m significant wave height going to the W
Current: weak and ambiguous
Cloud Cover: 25-45%, possibly clear
Forecaster DeHart