The storm and the team leave Port Hardy

The storm that is to the north now will supposedly still bring 15 kt southwesterly winds by 5 PM Friday. According to the NWS Juneau weather discussion, the GFS (the model providing boundary conditions for the WRF, which is what I’m looking at), the GFS is slower to weaken the storm than other models are, which is promising. But the swell will still be big tomorrow so it’s not the time to cross the bar.

EC says seas down to 2m overnight tonight. They also have a gale warning for today for Port Hardy, but the winds already are maxed out at 15 kts (and that’s at a buoy north of the island) and should be subsiding. The NOAA Wavewatch model says they should be down to 4-5 m by Friday at 5 PM. This model has the waves dropping under 2 m by 8 PM Saturday night. Right now it also looks like they’ll continue to flatten through Wednesday.

The winds also calm down after the storm. The winds should weaken under the ridge, though there is a blip of 15 kt northwesterly wind in Queen Charlotte Strait on Saturday around 5 PM ahead of the high pressure. Otherwise Friday night through Saturday morning winds are less than 10 kts, and then Saturday afternoon they become northerly 10-15 kts, building northerly 15-20 south of Cape Scott by Monday afternoon with a storm to the south. However, the Juneau NWS discussion indicates that the track is uncertain with this storm and it could head further north, so that’s a hazard to watch for.

So now I’m at school comparing the GFS (which is the US model we’re mostly using) to the Canadian and UK models, which are at least as good as the US model. The UK model has the small low ahead of the next trough developing more than the GFS does (the Canadian model develops it less). This would mean rain on Sunday. The UK and Canadian models only go until Sunday at 5 PM right now and I can’t get winds from them. But there is a chance for more storms after that! It is spring in the PNW…

Forecaster Pendergrass