High pressure is centered over 30N, 40W today giving you easterly flow on the large scale and temperatures in the mid-70’s. The closest ASCAT passover is just to your east, but it also shows predominantly easterly to east-noreasterly winds at 10 to 20 knots. There is a low pressure system just off the eastern tip of Newfoundland which is kick up waves and also has a trailing front that extends all the way down to the Bahamas which we will want to keep an eye on.
Looking to the forecast, the winds and waves will begin to decrease over the next 24 hours though their direction should remain fairly consistent. The winds will begin to become even more easterly at the end of the forecast period – Hooray! It is still hard to predict the currents since, as your observations have helped us discover, they can’t be trusted when weak in the model. You are still on track to approach the southern edge of a clockwise gyre at around 38.5W which should give you easterly currents but that looks like it’s still two or three days out. As far as I can tell, the clouds will be scattered to half coverage but the weather should be fairly dry.
Current Conditions (00Z, 17N, 35.5W)
Winds: out the ENE 15-20 knots
Waves: out of the NW, 3-4 m (significant wave height)
Currents: model is weak and ambiguous
Cloud Cover: low clouds, at least 50%
Intermediate forecast (12Z)
Winds: ENE to NE, decreasing to 15-18 knots
Waves: Still out of the NW, beginning to decrease to 2-3m
Currents: still ambiguous
Cloud Cover: Scattered, 35%
One day Forecast (00Z feb.23)
Winds: ENE 12-18 knots
Waves: NW 2-3 m
Currents: weak and ambiguous
Cloud cover: 45%
Forecaster Brown