Forecast (0000 UTC 6 March):
Current Conditions: Winds are light (5-7 kts) from the SE according to the ASCAT satellite. Satellite imagery indicates that skies should be mostly clear/partly cloudy (~20-40%), with perhaps a few lower-level clouds hanging around. There are more clouds, and perhaps a bit of rain 5 degrees to your north. Currents appear disorganized and/or weak, and significant wave height is likely in the 1-1.5 m range, from the NW. Temperature is near 70*F (21*C).
Short term forecast: You’re still under a nice little anticyclone for the next day and a half, which will keep winds light and from the S. Currents should remain disorganized and weak for the short and longer-term forecast period according to RTOFS. Significant wave height over the next 24 hours will remain around 1-1.5 m from the NW, but will gradually increase to 1.5-2m (still from the NW) by 6UTC March 7. Wind waves will be absent over the next 24 hours. Conditions should be mostly cloudy (50-70%) from 0UTC-8UTC, but will probably clear out (20-40%) for the remainder of the day.
Long term forecast: Starting March 9 you should start noticing the effects of a strong Nor’easter currently forming over New England. This storm will interact with the flow, push away your friendly anticyclone, and bring you stronger winds and waves. Winds will probably start picking up (to 10 knots) around Friday March 8 0UTC, and continue increasing through the weekend. Significant wave height will increase to 1.5-2m by March 7, gradually increasing further. There may be some light wind waves from the SW, about 0.5-1m in height starting around March 8 15UTC. By March 9 0UTC, expect significant wave heights (swells) of 2-3m from the N which may reach 3-4m by March 9 18UTC. Waves could reach even higher (4-5m) on March 11. Although you should be aware of the potential for huge waves and winds, the exact track for this storm is still uncertain as this Noreaster’s setup is difficult for models to handle right now. Simply put, there are two low pressure centers over North America currently and how the storm evolves will depend on how these two lows slam into each other. Changes in the Nor’easter’s track and intensity will affect how high/strong of waves/winds you’ll see. Forecasters will keep you apprised of this storm’s development.
Next 12 hours (0000-1200 UTC 6 March)
Winds: 3-6 knots, generally from the S or variable in direction
Waves: 1-1.5m from the NW
Currents: weak/disorganized
Clouds: 50-70%
12-18 hours (1200-1800 UTC 6 March)
Winds: 4-8 knots from the S
Waves: 1-1.5m from the NW
Currents: weak/disorganized
Clouds: 20-40%
18-24 hours (1800 UTC 6 March – 0000 UTC 7 March)
Winds: 4-8 knots from the S
Waves: 1-1.5m from the NW, increasing in height
Currents: weak/disorganized
Clouds: 40-50%, increasing, and then decreasing again around 12UTC March 17
Something cool: You guys are almost over the peak of the mid-Atlantic ocean ridge, where the Atlantic ocean is spreading apart and new oceanic crust is being created!
Forecaster Maroon