Current Conditions: The main weather feature of the moment is a cold front sweeping down from a low pressure center at about 45N 45W. As I write this, you’re latest location is 17.5 N, 37 3/4 W. The latest ASCAT pass shows the wind shift associated with a cold front (from E to SW winds!) at 19N, 39W to 17N, 41W. Not quite to you yet but almost! Sorry your nice ride might end… Luckily it looks like the frontal clouds are still staying to the north.
Short-term Forecast: Winds: as this front passes, the pressure will bottom out and the wind will shift substantially but it should be pretty weak in terms of speed. It will be fun to watch. If you aren’t too busy rowing you might even take some notes on the progression. Right after the front, you might see brief S/SW winds. These should turn clockwise, possibly briefly from the west (but weak!), then NW, then N, before finally getting back to NE. By 12 UTC Monday they should be back to NE.
Clouds: You might get some frontal clouds tomorrow morning, but they should both pass with the front and the models also show them dissipating. And then they say it is clearing! I hope they’re right.
Waves: Will pick up behind the front. Swell gets at high as 3-4 m from the NW immediately after this forecast period, lasting until Tuesday (but wind waves shouldn’t return until Monday night).
Currents: As for that eddy, RTOFS has it kind of unraveling, and waxing and waning as it unravels. You are near the SE edge of what is left of it, though. Do you think it’s been helping you progress lately? You might get some bits of E or ENE current help from it.
Longer-term Forecast: Another front is on the horizon next Wednesday or Thursday!! Which means… maybe winds will turn easterly again like they did before this one! It looks like it will hopefully be mostly sunny till then, though of course you should expect some trade wind cumulus.
Next 12 hours (0000-1200 UTC 24 February)
Pressure: ~1016 mb falling
Winds: <10 kts shifting from E to S to SW
Waves: Swell 1-1.5 m from NNW, 6-8 sec period. No wind waves.
Sunday morning: potential frontal clouds (25-75% cloudy/sunny)
12-18 hours (1200-1800 UTC 24 February)
Pressure: ~1016 mb rising
Winds: <10 kts shifting from SW to W to NW
Waves: New swell arriving 1.5-2 m from NW, 15-16 sec period. No wind waves.
Sunday afternoon clouds: clearing to sunny after the front (10% cloud cover, 90% sunny)
18-24 hours (1800 UTC 24 February – 0000 UTC 25 February)
Pressure: ~1016 mb
Winds: 10-15 kts from the N (still shifting clockwise)
Waves: Swell 2-3 m from the NW (14-15 sec period), getting into 3-4 m shortly thereafter
Monday clouds: 25% cloud cover (75% sunny!!!), 15 kt NE winds
Forecaster Pendergrass