Currently, observed wind speeds from the boat appear to have decreased over the last 24 hours from 15 knots to 10 knots. Satellite winds confirm winds in the area of about 10 knots, closer to 15 knots just west of the boat. The boat is reporting air temperatures in the lower 60s. This is in disagreement with the models and surface analysis, which report temperatures in the lower 70s. Satellite imagery shows clear skies.
Currents are the big story today. Based on the RTOFS, the boat will be entering a region of enhanced currents with a stronger southerly component. The currents should relax and become more easterly toward the end of this forecast period and beyond as the boat heads toward Cape Verde. We will need to keep an eye on the RTOFS in future forecasts.
Winds will increase slightly and hold steady, between 12-15 knots and will remain out of the NE. As mentioned in the previous forecast, the Azores high is still pushed off to the east as a deep low pressure system pushes into far Northern Europe. Still, high pressure dominates and cloud-free air can be expected over the forecast period as dry air from Africa is pushed out over the marine layer by the easterly flow. Waves will remain between 1.5-2 m out of the north throughout the short term. The smaller of these waves are out closer to Cape Verde.
Between three and five days out, expect the Azores high to build back to the west as another low pressure system moves out of the North Atlantic. At the same time, an upper level trough will push into the central Atlantic, likely bringing upper level clouds as moist air is brought in at upper levels. This trough will spin up a low pressure system that will stay well to the west of the boat, but may increase wave heights around four to five days out. Clouds may affect temperatures but winds should hold steady or decrease as the surface pressure field remains rather constant.
Next 12 hours (0000-1200 UTC 1/29)
Winds: 12-15 knots out of NE
Pressure: increasing, 1016 mb to 1017 mb
Waves (significant wave height): 1.5-2 m from the north
Currents: southeasterly 2-2.5 knots
12-18 hours (1200-1800 UTC 1/29)
Winds: 12-15 knots out of NE
Pressure: decreasing, 1017 mb to 1015 mb
Waves: 1.5-2 m from the north
Currents: south-southeasterly, increasing to 2.5-3 knots
18-24 hours (1800 UTC 1/29 to 0000 UTC 1/30)
Winds: 12-15 knots out of NE
Pressure: increasing, 1016 mb to 1017 mb
Waves: 1.5-2 m from the north
Currents: southeasterly, but relaxing down to around 2 knots as the region of strong currents weakens
Forecaster Dixon
One reply on “Clear skies dominate, stronger currents ahead”
Considering the conditions the crew has been dealing with, they really have been making great progress over the last 10 hours. Some quick calculations have them averaging 2.4 kn over that time. This translates into 24 nautical miles, or 27.6 miles, or 44 kms. for those in Canada. When we roll that out over time, that would be 58 nautical miles per day having the crew cover the 3569 nautical miles of the journey in 62 days. Even with the challenging start, with improved sea conditions and without extreme influence of currents, it could have our boys celebrating World Water Day in Caribbean waters. Here’s hoping for calm seas and better conditions. Who knows – eating flying fish may actually help – Go Jordan! Thanks for the very cool pictures Greg and the guys–the University of Lethbridge and many throughout Southern Alberta are cheering you on. Congrats to everyone at OAR Northwest on the website – as one student teacher put it today – it Rocks! Cheers.