Current conditions/net day: ASCAT shows northerly winds 15-20 kts at the boat’s current location. About halfway to the islands it gets to 20-25 kts and shift closer to NNW. ECMWF shows some weakening between now and when you’ll read this, with patches of 18-23 kt winds (closer to the islands) dissipating to merely 15-18 kts. The winds closer to Africa are a bit slower than closer to the islands in the model, though comparison with ASCAT says this is probably wrong. Winds will probably pick up out to sea, but over time they are probably dying a bit. Expect them to stay at least 15-18 kts.
Long term: The system causing windiness out to sea (past the islands) will dissipate over the next day or two and return to normal trade conditions. Slightly lower swell will hopefully encroach from the south in two days or so. RTOFS has a small patch of southerly current just to the south of the line between Dakar and the islands in the 72 h forecast (image can be sent if desired). Otherwise currents are much smaller (less than 1 kt?) and from the north or east.
-Next 12 hrs @ current location
Winds – 15-20 kts
Pressure – 1015 mb (from ECMWF)
Waves – 2-3 m from the NE, 8-9 sec
Currents – <1 kt north east ish?
– 6-18 hrs @ intermediate location
Winds – 15-23 kts
Pressure – 1016 mb
Waves – 1.5-3 m from the NE, 6-8 sec
Currents <1 kt north east ish?
-24 ish hrs @ farthest possible location
Winds – 18-23 kts
Pressure – 1018 mb (high pressure filling back in from the north)
Waves – longer periods arriving from the NW, (possibly closer to 48 h) – 1.5-2m and 10-12 sec.
Currents <1 kt, north east ish?
Forecasters Pendergrass and Barnes
Inspirational quote, from King Solomon's Mines (which Jordan told me to read)
It is far. But there is no journey upon this earth that a man may not make if he sets his heart to it.
H Rider Haggard
One reply on “Windy and wavy”
What a fitting quote for the day. With the cumulative heart of the JRH crew we know that this journey will be made. And talk about heart, considering the conditions 1.86 – 2.24 knots average SOG at night is incredible. Hopefully improving conditions will encourage the little leaguers to go play elsewhere. Oh for the doldrums – sort of like looking forward to Christmas. Cheers.