Good Morning,
Wow, you are really booking it. Great job on getting into the Strait.
Unfortunately, the weather is going to become to less than ideal for
the next day or two. Currently Environment Canada has your region
under a strong wind warning. However, conditions right now do not seem
that bad. At Sheringham Point, which you passed recently, winds are
are approximately 5 knots. While winds were from the north and
northwest overnight, as of 7 am the winds were coming from the east
and pressure was rising. At Race Rocks, which you are approaching
winds were also around 5 knots and have been from the east since about
5 this morning. Environment Canada has a high wind warning since they
are expecting the winds to increase from 5-15 knots this morning to
increase to 20-30 knot winds from the west during the morning. They
are predicting this winds to diminish to 15-20 knots on Tuesday
morning.
The National Weather Service continues to have a small craft advisory
through Tuesday morning. In the Central Strait of Juan de Fuca they
are predicting winds from the east at 10-15 knots this morning
increasing to 20-30 knots and turning so that they are coming from the
west this afternoon. There forecast discussion mentions that gales may
be possible in the strait this afternoon. They are also predicting
that the waves will increase from 1-2 ft to 3-5 ft and showers.
Tonight and Tuesday the winds are predicted to remain from the west
but reduce to 10-25 knots and waves diminish to 2-4 ft with showers
likely. After midnight on Tuesday winds are expected to reduce to
10-15 knots but winds will remain from the west.
Short Term Forecast:
The showers overnight were associated with a front that is currently
moving over the Cascades. The difficult part about this forecast is
that the front has moved slightly faster than the models predicted. I
would say the models were about 12 hours too slow. With the passage of
the front, winds will remain from the west as a second upper level
trough approaches and arrives in your area tomorrow. The UW GFS is
suggesting the winds will increase to 15-20 knots and remain at this
intensity until Tuesday afternoon. During this time the gusts may be
near 30-35 knots, especially overnight. However, the resolution of
the model in the strait is not the greatest, so it is hard to pin
point the exact intensity. Winds from the west will start to slowly
diminish to 15-20 knots on Tuesday afternoon. Unfortunately the wave
models have poor resolution in the strait, but the waves just outside
the strait will increase throughout the day and appear to peak
approximately tomorrow afternoon at approximately 7 ft and are coming
from the west.
Long Term Forecast:
After the second trough moves through a ridge of high pressure will
build throughout the day on Wednesday before the next storm begins to
approach on Thursday morning. By Wednesday morning winds will reduce
to 5-10 knots and continue to be from the west. Winds will remain
fairly light on the day Wednesday, but by the afternoon they will turn
and come from the south. Wednesday may be another good day.