Models and EC agree that you should have some northwesterlies from
whenever this from pushes out this morning-ish until the next
midlatitude cyclone comes in tomorrow night/Monday morning. It looks
like you’ve still got the front with you now, with 7 kt ESE winds at
Tofino Airport and 21 kts at La Perouse Buoy just offshore.
This is heavily based on the WRF/GFS (3hrly data) and NOAA Wavewatch
(6hrly data). Adam suggested that we do these. One thing that is
tricky about them (pointed out by Forecaster Powell) is that it is
difficult to convey uncertainty with them. So don’t forget that
there’s a lot of it. With that disclaimer…
Time Day: Winds (speed/dir gust speed), Waves, Notes – all directions
meteorological or “from the”
11 AM Sat: SE 20 kts g30, 7-9 ft SE, Front still clearing out
2 PM Sat: SE 15-20 kts g30, 7-9 ft SE
5 PM Sat: SSE 10-15 kts g20, 5-7 ft SE
8 PM Sat:5-15 kts swinging SSE to NW no gust, 5-7 SE, wind shift!
11 PM Sat: 5-15 kts NW g15 or 20, 5-7 ft SE
2 AM Sun: 15 kts NW g20 or 25, 5-7 ft SE
5 AM Sun: 10-15 kts NW g20, 5-7 ft SE
8 AM Sun: 10-15 kts NW g20, 5-7 ft SE
11 AM Sun: 5-10 kts NW no gust, 4-7 ft SE
2 PM Sun: 5 kts SW g10, 4-7 SE, winds shifting ahead of next storm –
note this could happen sooner!!!
5 PM Sun: 5 kts SSW g10, 4-5 ft SE
8 PM Sun: SE 5-10 g10, 4-7 SE
11 PM Sun: SE 5-10 g10-15, 4-7 SE, winds could go up to 20 kts if the
storm went further north than WRF says here
2 AM Mon: 5-15 kt E g20-25, 4-7 SE, again note about location
5 AM Mon: 5-10 kt NE g10-25, 5-7 SE, again location
This is all consistent with the EC forecast!
Longer term: The next storm after Sun night/Monday looks to be hitting
Wednesday night/Thurs. It bottoms out at 996 mb just offshore
(according to GFS), compared to the one tomorrow night which is only
1008 mb!