Hi Everyone! I’m Bonnie and I’ve been prepping for and attending a conference on tropical weather for the past two weeks but I have been following all of the forecasts by my fellow AMSers. The big picture this evening is the ridge is moving off to the east while a low pressure system approaches from the northwest. The associated cold front will reach you some time Wednesday although the timing is uncertain. Pressure will be dropping and precipitation increasing ahead of the front – a big change in the conditions is coming.
Current conditions: The wind has been increasing at the South Brooks buoy located northwest of your position. It is recording winds out of the northwest at 23 knots at the moment. At Estevan Point to your south, the wind has also been increasing and is out of the west-northwest at 15 knots, with the pressure dropping as well.
Short term outlook: The winds will decrease overnight and shift to coming more out of the west until roughly Tuesday afternoon when the approaching front will begin to affect the area. Tuesday evening the winds will begin to increase to 15 to 20 knots and shift to coming out of the south. Wave heights will also begin to increase during this time and wave direction will go from westerly to southwesterly so expect a component of the wind to be across the waves as the front approaches and choppiness to increase. The wave models are pretty low-resolution spatially so may not account for effects near the shore.
Long term outlook: The front will arrive some time Wednesday, but the exact timing is hard to pinpoint. The winds will peak at the front at 25 knots or more (the model puts gusts at 50 knots (!) but that’s about 9ft above the ground/surface so it’s likely going to be less down where you are) and then shift quickly from out of the south to out of the west-southwest. Immediately after the passage of the front, the pressure will begin to rise again and the winds will weaken. The temperature will also drop.
Tides
Saavedra Islands (South tip of Nootka Island- east side)
2012-04-24 (Tuesday)
Time Height
PDT (m) (ft)
02:32 3.6 11.8
09:20 0.7 2.3
15:53 3.2 10.5
21:13 1.9 6.2
2012-04-25 (Wednesday)
Time Height
PDT (m) (ft)
03:04 3.5 11.5
09:57 0.8 2.6
16:34 3.1 10.2
21:51 2.0 6.6
Forecaster Brown