The overview is that a storm came through last night, and another (stronger) one that will come in Thursday night. It looks like Friday and Saturday and probably Sunday there will be a ridge, and calmer weather. So Friday morning looks like the time to set out to avoid storms.
As for the dicey bar crossing, Friday the winds should be from the west – southwest. Not exactly ideal for heading out on the flood, but hopefully it’s still do-able.
OK, now some more details about the impending storms.
The second storm will swing in, with the center somewhat to the north of the island. For comparison: at 2 PM (Tuesday) the central pressure of the present storm is 992 mb. The forecast for 8 PM Thursday for the next storm is for it to be 980 mb. The wind speed is directly related to how low the pressure is. The front trailing to the south of this storm should pass by you Thursday night, +/- at least 6 hours. The winds should have calmed by Friday morning. Then you should be good to go.
The WRF model says the winds are supposed to gust to 60 kts 5 PM Thursday just off of the island as the front passes.
And by 5 PM Friday 10 kt southwesterly winds should be pleasant for you…
As far as how long your window will last, it looks good through Saturday for sure and maybe Sunday.
Forecaster Pendergrass