5:47 pm, November 21, 2014 – Forecast

 

Short term forecast:
An upper level trough is moving towards the forecast region from the west. The models are calling for the development of a squall line ahead of a front associated with this incoming system, and the large scale pattern looks active enough that rain might begin well ahead of the passage of the squall line. It looks like serious stuff. I think the atmosphere might be saving up something special for the grand finale of your trip.

Precipitation might begin as early as 9 am, though the highest resolution model I could find indicates it will be more like noon or 1 pm. Keep a close eye out on the sky. There is what people call a “return flow” of warm, moist air from the gulf and the air in the region is moistening up. Expect convection to begin closer to the coastline early in the day. That line of showers is expected to move north throughout the afternoon. After that first line of thunderstorms, a squall line is expected to move into the region from the west on Saturday evening. Heavy rain and strong winds are possible as the squall line passes, up to 30 knots in some regions.

Winds should be predominantly from the east at 10-15 mph, getting stronger as the squall line looms into the region. Expect the winds to turn southerly after the thunderstorm complex passes on Sunday morning. Looks like conditions will gradually clear afterwards, and it should be nice out in the afternoon.

Long term forecast:
After all this, conditions should clear out and stay that way until Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 60s, lows in the lower 50s.

Tonight
Lows: upper 50s
E winds at 10 mph
Clear evening overall

Saturday, November 22
Highs: lower 70s
Lows: low to mid 60s
E winds at 10-15 mph, getting stronger towards the evening, then shifting S
Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon followed by a squall line in the evening. Could be quite the show.

Sunday, November 23
Highs: mid to upper 70s
Lows: lower 60s
S winds 10 mph
Might still be pretty active in the morning, should calm down in the afternoon. Nice, clear evening though.

Monday, November 24
Highs: mid 60s
Lows: upper 40s to lower 50s
S wind 10 mph, Mostly clear

Forecaster Adames


Weather forecasts are provided twice daily by the American Meteorological Society Student Chapter at the University of Washington, a group of undergrad and graduate students interested in weather and climate. Learn more about them at http://www.atmos.washington.edu/uw_ams/.

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